Election trend 2025: AfD overtakes traffic light parties - who really wins?

Election trend 2025: AfD overtakes traffic light parties - who really wins?

Thüringen, Deutschland - On June 1, 2025, the focus is on the survey results on the electoral preference for the Bundestag election. The opinion research institutes Forsa and Infratest Dimap have carried out various surveys, the results of which are aggregated by the Editorial Network Germany (RND). These daily average values ​​provide a current overview of the trends in German election behavior, whereby the SPD was temporarily the strongest force in the Bundestag after the election 2021, but was quickly overtaken by the Union. The Greens also experienced a decline in their number of supporters after an initial high flight. The FDP, which could no longer exceed the 5 percent hurdle in the 2025 election, also fell in the favor of voters.

The AfD, on the other hand, benefited from the losses of the traffic light parties and was able to position itself in mid -2023 to the second strongest party. But in early 2024 it fell back a few percentage points. A new party, the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), remained just below the 5 percent mark and thus ensured a competitive field of choice.

survey method in detail

The survey methods are diverse and range from personal-mademic surveys to telephone to internet-based surveys. Allensbach, for example, conducts personal-mademic surveys according to quotas. Other institutes such as Verian, Kantar Public and Forsa use telephone surveys, while Insa and YouGov prefer internet -based surveys. Surveys in general have a panel size of 1,000 to 2,000 people and the results are weighted according to gender, age and education to ensure representativity for the population entitled to vote. The methodology of opinion research is crucial for the interpretability of the results that give them a scientific basis. In election research, both survey data and aggregate data of statistical offices are analyzed.

The aggregate data allow conclusions to be drawn about social structures, while survey data primarily represent the political assessments and intentions of the voters. They contain population statistical features, which is of great importance for the authority of the data. These aspects are essential as the basis for long -term research in election research and are reflected in the trends that are currently being observed.

With a view to the elections in the East German countries of Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg, the differences in the votes are particularly striking and illustrate the regional peculiarities in the election behavior that go beyond the German duration.

Political science is therefore not only interested in the current survey, but is also interested in the long -term trends in election behavior and their causes in society. The consideration of various statistical approaches and survey methods ensures that the results are as precise and meaningful as possible. This database is crucial to better understand future elections and the behavior of voters.

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