Long -term weather forecasts: truth or illusion? Experts clarify!
Long -term weather forecasts: truth or illusion? Experts clarify!
Long -term weather forecasts are a complex topic that deals with many people. As hna , the reliability of short-term weather forecasts, for example for the next few days, is relatively high. Weather apps offer precise information based on current atmospheric conditions. However, the further to the future you plan. Dr. Andreas Walter, air conditioner and press spokesman at the German Weather Service (DWD), explains the decisive difference between weather forecasts and climate projections.
Weather forecasts are reliable for a maximum of five days and are based on the current state of the atmosphere. In contrast, climate projections affect long -term changes and can reach by the end of the century. The accuracy of these forecasts depends heavily on marginal values such as greenhouse gas emissions.
The role of greenhouse gases
like the Environmental Federal Office note with a global temperature increase from 1.4 degrees Celsius until 2100, dependent on the progress or progress Return in climate policy. Without measures to reduce emissions, a medium global warming of 3.2 ° C to 2100 could become reality. The heating runs faster than all previous natural temperature fluctuations.
The influence of climate change on weather phenomena
An analysis of the WWF has shown that flood events have increased in frequency in recent decades. One example is the devastating flood disaster in Germany in July 2021, which demanded over 180 lives. Climate scientists determine that climate change significantly increases the likelihood of such extreme events. Heavy rain cases in Western Europe have become 1.2 to 9 times more likely.
In the long run, coastal floods that previously only occurred in 100 years can occur annually. Climate change is not only shown by higher temperature events, but also by an increase in the amount of precipitation, which has increased globally. Special challenges arise for regions that are affected by drought and water shortages, especially in southern Europe, where such phenomena increase.need for action and adaptation
In order to limit the ear heating to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius, greenhouse gas emissions must be drastically reduced. The Federal Environment Agency warns that the current political measures are not sufficient to achieve this goal. Germany not only has to take care of the reduction in emissions, but also to adapt to the already noticeable climate changes, such as the expansion of renewable energies and the improvement of flood protection.
climate change demands us to combat the causes and to weaken the effects to ensure the quality of life of future generations.
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