Rainchaos and Hitzesommer: Does the Rhein-Sieg region threaten the drought?

Rainchaos and Hitzesommer: Does the Rhein-Sieg region threaten the drought?

The Rhein-Sieg district faces an uncertain weather. According to the weather model Icon, rainy amounts of between 30 and 40 liters per square meter are expected in the region by the end of May 2025. Nevertheless, the current situation remains worrying, because in Troisdorf Rotter See only 66 liters of rain per square meter have fallen. The last noteworthy rainfalls were already recorded on May 3. This year reminds of spring 2015 and 2020, when extreme drought was also there and fell less than 100 liters of rain per square meter.

The spring 2025 brought a record with 750 to 780 sunshine with it, but the cool temperatures could soon take a back seat. An increase in temperatures will be forecast for the end of the coming week. On social media, the “risk of a heat summer” is already being discussed, with the probability of such a summer is 65 to 70 percent. However, long -term forecasts give the reason for skepticism because weather conditions can change quickly.

Hitzesommer and its consequences

A hot and dry summer could have serious effects on nature, especially on the river level of victory, Agger and Swist, which are already low. This situation not only affects the Rhein-Sieg district, but also has nationwide dimensions. In the first half of 2023, Germany could experience the driest since weather records began. Despite the prospects for rain in May, experts report that the drought will increase the heat waves in summer. Temperature phases of over 30 degrees could occur more frequently and more intensively. In particular, the dry soils that arose due to the rain deficit favor the heat because they do not enable evaporation and thus minimize cloud formation.

Current estimates show that in Germany over 31 billion cubic meters of rainwater are missing compared to the reference period from 1991 to 2020. This corresponds to an enormous amount that corresponds to about two thirds of the Lake Constance or more than 220 billion filled bathtubs. On average, between 50 and 100 liters of rain per square meter in the different federal states. Northern federal states such as Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Schleswig-Holstein are particularly affected with around 50 percent less precipitation.

The need for courageous measures

With these weather conditions, increasing damage caused by natural hazards are associated. In 2023, the damage due to extreme weather events in property and car insurance amounted to 5.6 billion euros. Jörg Asmussen, General Manager of the GDV, emphasizes the urgency of courageous measures to adapt to the new climate conditions. The annual natural hazard report addresses the water sensitivity of infrastructure, buildings and cities and shows that an accumulation of flood events is due to climate change.

The forecast increase in extreme weather events makes it clear that Germany must intensify its efforts to achieve the Paris climate goals. The future could bring serious changes, since damage due to the consequences of climate change could be doubled by 2050. The data and information collected not only serve research, but should also raise social awareness of the challenges of climate change.

The situation in the Rhein-Sieg district is a wake-up call for everyone who has to become aware of the current and future climate and weather conditions. The discussion about the risk of a hot summer is only the beginning of a major challenge that society has to face in order to avoid negative effects on nature and humans.

For more information, visit the articles from ksta.de, FOCUS.de and gdv.de .