Voter flows 2025: AfD overtakes Union - what does that mean for us?

Voter flows 2025: AfD overtakes Union - what does that mean for us?

Deutschland - Current surveys for the Bundestag election 2025 show a dynamic image of the political landscape in Germany. According to Remszeitung changed. The surveys are carried out regularly by various opinion research institutes, such as Forsa and Infratest dimap. The editorial network Germany (rnd) calculates the average of the last ten surveys every day to get an accurate impression of the political currents.

After the Bundestag election in 2021, the SPD started the strongest force, but was soon overtaken by the Union. The Greens, who initially experienced a high flight, also show a decline. The FDP has also lost support and could be at risk not to overcome the 5 percent hurdle in the upcoming choice. In the meantime, the AfD benefited from the losses of the traffic light parties and rose to the second strongest party in 2023, but lost a few percentage points in early 2024

methods and representativity of the surveys

The methods for carrying out the surveys vary. While the Allensbach Institute conducts personal-mandatory surveys, other institutes such as Verian, Forsa as well as Insa and Yougov rely on telephone or internet-based surveys. The panel size is usually between 1,000 and 2,000 people to ensure a representative survey. The results are weighted according to gender, age and education to increase the accuracy, such as Wahlrecht reports.

However, the data of the surveys are considered projections and aims to get as close as possible to the result of a federal election. When analyzing the election behavior, it becomes clear that the AfD cuts particularly strongly for younger voters after it is ranked behind the CDU/CSU as the second strongest group. Interestingly, the traffic light parties lost to support, which meant that the FDP is no longer represented in the Bundestag, which is a significant change.

election behavior at a glance

The election behavior also shows significant differences from age groups. Older voters (60+) mainly tend to CDU/CSU and SPD, while the younger voters (18-29) are particularly approved by the left and the AfD. The polls ask different trends about gender: 35 % of younger women choose the left, while younger men support 27 % of the AfD. Cities and rural areas also show different election behavior, which is due to the demographic differences in the electorate.

In addition, the voters vary greatly depending on the denomination. Protestants tend to be 29 % of the CDU/CSU and 20 % to the SPD, while Catholics recorded the CDU/CSU with 39 % the largest trailer. Among the denomination-free voters is a neutral attitude, with 22 % for CDU/CSU and 24 % for the AfD, such as Fowid noted.

The coming months up to the Bundestag election will be crucial, especially for the FDP that is fighting for its re -election while the AfD endeavors to keep or even improve its current survey values. How the election behavior will develop until the election remains to be seen.