Shocking birth rate: where have the children gone?

Shocking birth rate: where have the children gone?

In Germany the discussion about the falling birth rate is getting louder again. Current figures show that the birth rate will have fallen to 1.35 children per woman in 2024. This is a decrease of 2 percent compared to the previous year and the lowest value since 2012. The situation is particularly dramatic in the new federal states. Here, local studies report that the birth rate has fallen by more than half since reunification, when many women gave birth in these regions. In Brandenburg, for example, there were still 175,000 women of childbearing age living before 1991, while after 1991 there were only 92,000 - a decline of a whopping 47 percent. These figures come from an analysis by Barnim Aktuell, which shows the challenges for family policy.

But what are the causes of this decline? High costs of living, climate change and geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine, play a crucial role. The birth rate fell particularly sharply in Barnim and Wandlitz, with declines of 53 and 63 percent respectively. In order to stabilize the birth rate in these regions, a birth rate per woman of 2.84 in Barnim and even 3.58 in Wandlitz would be needed, which seems hardly achievable given today's status. The numerous delivery room closures and reduced daycare places only further support this trend.

The demographic development and its details

As the statistical offices show, the development of birth rates depends not only on the number of possible mothers, but also on birth behavior. The combined birth rate has fallen continuously since 2017, with the only exception being 2021, when a short-term increase was recorded during the corona pandemic. An example for the region is Thuringia, where the birth rate has fallen from 1.34 to 1.24 children per woman - a decline that is fueling concerns about future developments. As the Tagesschau reports, the decline in women with German citizenship is also dramatic, with birth rates falling to their lowest level since 1996. For women of German origin the rate is now 1.23.

The average age of mothers remains consistently high at 31.8 years, which suggests that parents in Germany tend to get older when they have their first child. This shows a social trend that can also be observed in other Western countries. In the eastern federal states, the birth rate is currently worryingly low at 1.27 children per woman compared to 1.38 in the western federal states.

The look beyond the borders

In an international comparison, Germany ranks in the middle with its birth rate of 1.35. While China has a rate of 1.01 and South Korea only 0.75, the global average is 2.2, particularly influenced by high numbers in Africa and the Middle East. The social factors that are closely correlated with the birth rate are the level of education and gender equality. In countries like France, where support is provided from the third child onwards, positive developments are being seen in birth policy. Hungary waives income tax after the second child. However, politics in this country often seems to be based on unrealistic assumptions about future birth rates, which exacerbates the challenges for the regions mentioned.

The future looks bleak unless sustainable solutions are quickly found to support young families and shape living conditions so that more children are born.

Barnim Current reports on the gradually closing delivery rooms and reduced daycare places, destatis.de highlights the demographic background and the daily news provides information about current trends in birth patterns.