Nawrocki in front of Trzaskowski: Poland chooses more tight than ever!

Nawrocki in front of Trzaskowski: Poland chooses more tight than ever!

As the current forecasts show, the right -wing conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki is ahead in the runoff election around the Polish presidency. According to the information from Tagesspiegel received Nawrocki 51 percent of the vote, while his Liberal Rival Rafal Trzaskowski could reach 49 percent. However, it is important to note that the election result remains uncertain due to the scarce advantage and statistical fault tolerance.

The turnout was impressive 71.7 percent, which represents an increase in comparison to the election of 2020, when only 68.2 percent of the voters dismissed their votes, such as time reported. The forecasts are based on post -selection surveys from 500 polling stations and partial counts from 450 polling stations. However, the fault tolerance of 0.5 percentage points allows a further outcome of the election, also a possible victory by Trzaskowski.

electoral and forecast

The entire election time was characterized by tension and uncertainty. Trzaskowski saw a first forecast at 9 p.m. with 50.3 percent, while at around 11 p.m. Nawrocki took the lead, as from the same time reporting. Nawrocki then published a narrow lead of 51 percent by Ipsos at 1 a.m.

For this ballot, almost 29 million voters were called to choose a successor to the outgoing President Andrzej Duda. The first ballot on May 18, 2025 ended with a surprising turn when Trzaskowski received 31.4 percent of the votes, while Nawrocki 29.5 percent according to Statista reached.

political implications

The outcome of this choice is of great importance, since it could significantly influence the future political orientation of Poland both internally and foreign policy. Nawrocki is supported by the opposition party law and justice (PIS), while Trzaskowski is part of the Governing Citizens' Coalition (KO). Should Nawrocki win, he could continue the political blockade and strive for early parliamentary elections.

Both candidates radiated victory on the election evening. Nawrocki's election campaign was strongly shaped by nationalist tones, pronounced EU skepticism and ultra-conservative positions. In contrast, Trzaskowski was considered pro -European, but put his progressive profile less in the foreground. Nevertheless, Trzaskowski is committed to supporting Ukraine, but announced that it would delete child benefit for non -employed Ukrainian refugees, which caused discussions.

An exciting week full of political turbulence is imminent, while the official end result is expected on Monday morning. The forecasts show that everything remains possible despite the tight leadership of Nawrocki.