Saxony-Anhalt is threatened with demographic collapse: the population is shrinking drastically!

Saxony-Anhalt is threatened with demographic collapse: the population is shrinking drastically!

Demographic change is clearly noticeable in Saxony-Anhalt and both the population and the average age of the people will change significantly in the coming years. According to a current forecast by the State Statistical Office, the population is expected to fall to around 1.83 million by 2040, which corresponds to a decline of around 15%. Approximately 2.13 million people currently live in Saxony-Anhalt. These developments are primarily due to the low birth rate. For the period from 2023 to 2040, around 225,600 births and 608,900 deaths are expected, which means a negative balance of more than 380,000 people who will be missing from the population.

What is particularly alarming is the trend that around 20,000 more people die every year than are born. The assumptions about the birth rate are sobering: German women, with a birth rate of 1.365, are far below the necessary level, while foreign women do slightly better on average with 2.1 children per woman. Life expectancy will also change; By 2040, men's life expectancy will go from 77 to 79 years and women from 83 to 85 years.

Spatial differences and challenges

An intensive look at the different regions shows that the effects of demographic change are not evenly distributed. The Burgenland district will see the greatest losses, with a decline of up to 25% in some communities. A more moderate decline of around 7% is forecast for the Saale district, especially in cities like Merseburg. In contrast, the proportion of older people in the urban centers of Halle and Magdeburg remains relatively stable. These cities are seen as key attractions in Saxony-Anhalt, where by 2040 there will be a male surplus of 94 in Halle and 99 men for every 100 women in Magdeburg.

Overall, it is expected that the ratio of employed people to seniors will change significantly. In 2040, there could be 21 younger and 54 older people for every 100 employed people. In rural regions, the proportion of people of working age could even fall to around half, which could have significant consequences for the local labor market and social structure.

Gender ratio and number of children in focus

A significant number of 96,000 children under the age of six currently live in Saxony-Anhalt, but this is expected to decline to around 79,000 children by 2040. The decline is particularly high in Halle and the Wittenberg district, where over 25% fewer children are predicted. This development is further reinforced by demographic change and changing family structures.

Klaus Friedrich, a social geographer, emphasizes the possibility of actively influencing demographic change. Targeted immigration, strengthening regional centers and family-friendly regional policy could help mitigate the negative effects. In this context, the Demography Portal of the State of Saxony-Anhalt is a valuable source of information that provides numerous data on population development and initiates stimulating discussions about the opportunities presented by demographic change.

A concrete example of promoting social cohesion is the state's engagement fund, which supports neighborhood assistance projects with up to 2,500 euros. In addition, the 2024 microcensus provides important insights into how children grow up in Saxony-Anhalt, which is of central importance for future political and social development.

Overall, Saxony-Anhalt and its population face major challenges, but also opportunities to actively shape positive change and counteract demographic developments.