Election surveys 2025: SPD fights, AfD settles - what does that mean for us?

Election surveys 2025: SPD fights, AfD settles - what does that mean for us?

On June 13, 2025, current surveys on the election intentions of the citizens show a dynamic political situation in Germany. The survey was carried out by important opinion research institutes such as Forsa and Infratest dimap. Loud Sächsische.de The editorial network Germany (rnd) calculates the average of the last ten surveys every day. This gives a comprehensive overview of the current political mood in the country.

The surveys show that the SPD, which was initially the strongest force after the Bundestag election in 2021, was overtaken by the Union. The Greens, who experienced a decline in votes after an initial high flight, as well as the FDP, which failed in 2025 at the 5 percent hurdle, are under pressure. The rise of the AfD is remarkable, which in mid -2023 rose to the second strongest party, but lost a few percentage points in early 2024.

surveys and their methodology

The current surveys are based on different methods. According to wahlrecht.de this includes telephone surveys and personal surveys. Allensbach relies on personal-mademic surveys according to quota requirements, while Forsa and Verian work by telephone surveys from randomly selected people. Internet -based surveys are offered by Insa and Yougov.

The panel size is usually between 1000 and 2000 participants. These answers are weighted to ensure the representativity for the population entitled to vote. Nevertheless, surveys have to be interpreted with caution, since they reflect the current political mood without enabling exact predictions for election results. The statistical fault tolerance is +/- three percentage points, whereby the relative error area is greater than 30 percent parties, such as MDR.de reported.

examination of the election statistics

In addition, it has been shown that the five percent hurdle significantly influences the election behavior. Parties that lie above this brand have a 75 percent chance of entering parliament, while the proportion for parties under the hurdle is only 25 percent. This dynamic means that voters often fear that their voice is wasted.

Overall, the latest surveys show a rapidly changing political landscape in Germany, which is characterized by changing moods and various factors. The coming weeks will be decisive to see how the opinions of the electorate will develop.