Customs dispute with the USA presses German exports to record low!

Customs dispute with the USA presses German exports to record low!

Deutschland - The customs dispute between the USA and Germany had a noticeable impact on the German export industry in April 2025. According to the Tagesspiegel the export value of German goods dropped to 131.1 billion euros in the mentioned month, which has a decrease of 1.7 percent compared to the previous year means. In particular, exports to the United States fell to 13 billion euros, the lowest value since October 2024, and were 6.3 percent adjusted for calendar and seasonal.

In the first quarter of the year, however, there was a slightly positive picture, since many companies preferred their business to President Donald Trump's announced customs policy. For the period from January to April, a small increase in exports is 0.2 percent. At the beginning of April, Trump presented an extensive customs package, which doubled the import duties on steel and aluminum from 25 to 50 percent. Negotiations on mutual tariffs between the United States and the EU have so far been unsuccessful.

uncertainty by Trump's customs policy

The Trump trade strategies create a climate of uncertainty that affects not only companies but also the financial markets. Since his inauguration in January 2025, Trump has announced multiple tariffs and often resigned them quickly, which significantly affects planning security for German exporters. This reports Statista .

The US COT CONTAL policy is particularly affected by many German companies, especially in the pharmaceutical, automotive and mechanical engineering industry, which are very dependent on export. A 25 percent dial on all US imports could have drastic consequences and an almost 43 percent loss of German exports to the United States. The entire German export industry could decrease by more than 3 percent, which would result in a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.2 percentage points. This assessment is supported by institutions such as the IFW Kiel.

strategies for adapting to customs policy

In order to counteract the effects of the new customs regulations, companies evaluate a wide variety of strategies. According to an analysis of KPMG , the assessment of delivery contracts and possible price change clauses is becoming increasingly important. Companies should check the goods classification and the origin of the goods carefully and consider possible customs expenses and customs storage in the USA.

It is also advisable to develop "what-if" scenarios in order to quantify potential customs effects under different conditions. Strategies such as the adaptation of transfer prices and the use of free trade zones in the United States could help mitigate the negative effects. The uncertainties that are created by the changing customs policy are an inhibition factor for economic growth and the long -term effects remain uncertain.