Lavrov's new plans: Germany as a guarantor for Ukraine?

Lavrov's new plans: Germany as a guarantor for Ukraine?

The political developments surrounding security guarantees for Ukraine are picking up speed again. Today, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed his expectations for countries that could take on a role as guarantors in the UN Security Council. In a clear announcement, he named Germany and Turkey as well as other nations that could potentially offer security guarantees for Kiev. The idea behind it is to reach a binding agreement that should guarantee Ukraine's permanent neutrality, as was already envisaged in the failed negotiation process in Istanbul in 2022, as n-tv.de reports.

Lavrov made it clear that the member states of the UN Security Council - Russia, the USA, China, Great Britain and France - have the responsibility to guarantee peace. However, Kyiv is skeptical about this approach. The Ukrainian government is concerned that Russia could block any deployment of security forces at any time, which would effectively undermine Ukraine's security. President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly pointed out that Ukraine should remain in a defensive role and take active action against Russian aggression. He demands that the pressure on Russia not be eased in order to end the conflict. This urgency is also reflected in Ukraine's current military counterattacks, which have had some successes in the Sumy region and around Pokrovsk in recent days, as Tagesspiegel reports.

The role of the military presence

Military commitments and presence play a central role in the discussion about security guarantees. Various forms of guarantees are being considered, ranging from political assurances to financial and military support elements. Ideally, Kiev would like to join NATO in order to be able to draw on the extensive assistance obligations under Article 5. However, the current political conditions show that this is no longer up for debate at the moment, even if there is a discussion about security guarantees attached to Article 5, as Tagesschau summarizes.

A possible presence of foreign soldiers to ensure peace is also discussed. French President Emmanuel Macron has brought “reinsurance troops” into play, while the USA and European partner countries are also considering a military presence in Ukraine – but without US soldiers. This poses both logistical and political challenges. An effective protective troop deployment would range from several thousand to 150,000 soldiers. The German Bundeswehr, however, is having difficulty reaching NATO's planned troop strength, which is currently around 181,500 soldiers, with the target being 260,000.

Hurdles and solutions

The political hurdlesare not to be underestimated. Russia requires NATO troops in Ukraine and insists on their inclusion in the security guarantees. There is also a domestic policy in Germany that speaks against the deployment of troops. Another proposal, which is currently little discussed, is the establishment of a UN peacekeeping mission. This could include between 30,000 and 40,000 soldiers, but this would require a robust UN mandate and a precise approach.

So there are a lot of challenges ahead for Ukraine and its partners in building robust security guarantees that not only ensure peace but also prevent future aggression. Time is short and the political landscape is in flux - the developments in the next few weeks will be crucial.