Local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: SPD under pressure, AfD with historic growth!

Local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: SPD under pressure, AfD with historic growth!

The local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) are approaching and the political bets are already underway. On September 14, 2025, 13.7 million of those eligible to vote will be able to cast their votes in North Rhine-Westphalia. These elections represent the first major test of sentiment since the federal election in February. Developments will be particularly exciting in North Rhine-Westphalia, which is not only the most populous federal state in Germany, but is also considered a blueprint for the Federal Republic. According to the Freie Presse, a current Forsa survey from the beginning of July shows that both the CDU, the SPD and the Greens are facing losses, while the AfD and the Left can expect gains.

The SPD currently has to deal with a sobering figure of only 22 percent. In earlier times the party was a fixture in the Ruhr area, but now it is fighting for its former stronghold. The federal election in February had already highlighted the tense conditions: in Gelsenkirchen, the SPD won the direct mandate, but the AfD was just ahead in the second vote. Political scientist Norbert Kersting expresses his doubts that an AfD politician will move into a larger town hall, as coalitions are needed in the municipalities.

Role of the SPD and hopes of the party leadership

On the SPD side, Bärbel Bas is seen as a bearer of hope. She clearly won her constituency of Duisburg I in the last election and is actively seeking contact with voters. Lars Klingbeil, co-party leader of the SPD, is also seen as an active player in the local election campaign in North Rhine-Westphalia. His commitment could give Bas's team an additional boost.Bärbel Bas is considered down-to-earth and comes from a simple background, which makes her understandable for many voters.

As a further consideration, the party leadership is considering Bas' candidacy as the top candidate for the 2027 North Rhine-Westphalia state election. Dirk Wiese, manager of the Bundestag faction, emphasizes the SPD's strong presence in North Rhine-Westphalia, which could also be due to down-to-earth candidates. However, he does not believe that the performance of the Merz coalition in Berlin will have a significant impact on the local elections.

The competition between the AfD and the CDU

The competition never sleeps, and the AfD has positioned itself strongly according to current surveys. It could potentially record a historic increase in seats in the upcoming local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia. In surveys, the AfD has 14 percent, which represents an increase of 9 points compared to 2020. While the CDU ended up at 32 percent, a loss of 2.3 points, the Greens also recorded a decline to 14 percent. As WAZ reports, the CDU remains the strongest local political force despite its worst results since 1946.

But Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst (CDU) is also under pressure to show stability and not to shift the internal party debates to the election campaign. The AfD is focusing heavily on issues such as migration and security in its election campaign, which is giving them a boost in this election period. As if that weren't enough, there were also some municipalities in which AfD candidates were excluded from the elections, which further reinforces the party's outsider image.

Overall, the coming weeks are likely to be exciting for all parties in North Rhine-Westphalia, as the elections on September 14th will show in which direction the political landscape will develop. Citizens are called upon to use their influence - the mood is characterized by uncertainty and the urge for change.