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Thuringia in transition: 236,000 fewer residents by 2042!
The Saale-Holzland district faces a significant decline in population and a rising average age by 2042.
Thuringia in transition: 236,000 fewer residents by 2042!
There is news from Thuringia that makes you sit up and take notice: The State Statistical Office has published a worrying forecast according to which around 236,000 people, i.e. around 15% of the population, will emigrate from the towns and communities within the district in the next 20 years. This reports Thuringia24.
This development shows significant regional differences. A closer look reveals that some municipalities can expect a decline of up to 59.4%, while other municipalities can look forward to an increase of up to 58.7%. 58.8% of the communities lose between 10 and 30% of their residents. Only 3% of the communities expect a stable population, and 7.5% are optimistic about the future with an increase of more than 2.0%.
Demographic changes
Another aspect of these demographic changes is the average age of the population. By 2042 it is expected to increase by 2.2 years to 50.8 years. This average will remain unchanged until 2045, unless the average age falls in one of only 67 municipalities. In 2045, the oldest municipality will be Waltersdorf in the Saale-Holzland district with an average age of 69.1 years, while Dieterode in Eichsfeld will be the youngest municipality with an average of 40.6 years.
In addition, there is also a shift in the structure of the municipalities: the proportion of small municipalities with fewer than 500 inhabitants will increase by 6.3 percentage points, while the proportion of larger municipalities with over 5,000 inhabitants will decrease by 3.8 percentage points. These results are based on model calculations that analyze assumptions about births, deaths and migration between 2019 and 2024.
A look at the numbers
| Population development | % change |
|---|---|
| Loss (up to 59.4%) | 45-59% |
| Profit (up to 58.7%) | 46-58% |
| Loss (10-30%) | 58.8% |
| Stable population | 3% |
| Increase (more than 2.0%) | 7.5% |
Given these developments, the question arises as to how communities will deal with these challenges. Demographic change not only has a profound impact on the infrastructure, but also on the social fabric and economic development of the regions. It will be exciting to see how the situation will develop in the coming years and what measures will be taken to address the challenges.
For everyone who works in the financial world, the topic of population statistics and their impact on credit risks and investment opportunities is particularly relevant. Banks and financial institutions such as Chase monitor such trends closely in order to adapt their products and services to the needs of the population.