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Thuringia facing population decline: Alarming forecasts until 2042!
Population decline and age structure in the Saale-Holzland district: forecasts up to 2045 show significant demographic changes.
Thuringia facing population decline: Alarming forecasts until 2042!
In the next two decades, Thuringia will face significant demographic changes. According to a study by Thüringen24, the population in the district's cities and municipalities will decrease by around 236,000 inhabitants, which corresponds to a considerable loss of 15%. This development, which was calculated in advance between 2022 and 2042, shows impressive regional differences within the state's 600 municipalities. While some municipalities expect a decline of up to 59.4%, others expect an increase in their population of up to 58.7%, according to the [Thuringian State Office for Statistics](https://statistics.thueringen.de/th_2042/erlaeuterung/ Notices_berechnung.htm).
What does it look like specifically? Over half of the communities – 58.8% to be precise – will experience a population decline of between 10 and 30%. Only 3% of the communities can look forward to a stable population, while 7.5% expect an increase of more than 2%. These forecasts are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration movements that were derived from population development in the years 2019 to 2024.
Aging population
Another key point is the average age of the population. This is expected to increase by 2.2 years to 50.8 years by 2042 and stagnate until 2045. The average age will fall in only 67 of the more than 600 communities. The oldest municipality by 2045 will be Waltersdorf in the Saale-Holzland district, where an average age of 69.1 years can be expected. In contrast, the youngest community, Dieterode im Eichsfeld, will have an average age of 40.6 years.
Demographic developments not only have an impact on population numbers, but also on the structure of communities. The proportion of small communities with fewer than 500 residents will increase by 6.3 percentage points, while larger communities with over 5,000 residents will experience a decline of 3.8 percentage points. These changes are not just numbers, but affect the daily lives of local people.
Changes in birth and migration movements
The assumptions regarding birth rates show a very low level of just 1.4 children per woman in 2022, which is expected to rise to 1.6 children by 2042. The average age of mothers at birth will also increase by one year. In addition, a reduction in migration gains is expected: from 37,000 people in 2022, a decline is expected to only 5,000 by 2033, before a slight recovery in immigration could occur.
These demographic forecasts and their far-reaching consequences are of great importance for the planning of infrastructure, social services and educational institutions. Calculations based on the data from the 2011 census and developments in the coming years still provide a basis for actively addressing the challenges of the future.
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